Who’s In And Who’s Out: Week 11 “Turkey With A Side Of Playoff Scenarios” Edition

Turkey Week!! Rivalry Week (not featured Texas-Texas A&M, Missouri-Kansas, West Virginia…)!!

Enjoy the short week and the copious amount of poultry. Don’t let Donald Trump, terrible coaching and the ominous rise of Big Ten and Dallas Cowboys football ruin your holiday.


The “Win And Your In” Conference


The “Just Win” Division

Alabama (11-0)

Clemson (10-1)

Washington (10-1)


As simple as it gets. Win out, win your conference, and you’ll be in the playoff. If Alabama stumbles against one of Auburn or Florida they might not even be out. Two losses get dicey. A loss by Clemson could knock them out but not necessarily. A loss by Washington probably knocks the Huskies out.


The “Just Win: Big Ten Edition” Division

Ohio State (10-1)

Penn State (9-2)

Michigan (10-1)

Wisconsin (9-2)


If one of these teams win their rivalry game and then wins the Big Ten Championship they will likely be in. There are very real scenarios where one of these teams wins their rivalry game, sits out the title game and still sneaks in as a four seed. Any loss along the way probably eliminates the team in question.


The “Just Add Chaos” Conference


The “Curious Case Of Colorado” Division

Colorado (9-2)


While the Oklahomas are in a good position, if Colorado wins out they could just as easily swipe that Pac-12 playoff bid. Back-to-back wins over Utah and Washington, while winning the conference title, would make CU a very attractive 10-2 team.


The “Curiouser Case of the Oklahomas” Division

Oklahoma (9-2)

Oklahoma State (9-2)


Amazingly the zombie Okies have risen from the dead and are very much alive. Right now the SEC and Big Ten will be represented in the playoff barring an absolute meltdown. The Pac-12 and the ACC have no room for error. A Husky loss to Wazzu or in the Pac-12 title game or a second Clemson loss opens the door for the Big 12. The winner of Bedlam is not automatically in but they probably sit the prettiest if chaos devours the top teams.


The “The Curiousest Case of Florida” Division

Florida (8-2)

And what happens if the Gators beat a good Florida State team and then shock the world by beating Alabama for the SEC title? I think of the above four scenarios you’d have to rank the surprise conference champions as such:

1) Colorado 10-2 (best win over Washington losses to USC and Michigan)

2) Oklahoma 10-2 (best win over Oklahoma State, losses to Houston and Ohio State)

3) Florida 10-2 (best win over Alabama, losses to Tennessee and Arkansas)

4) Oklahoma State 10-2 (best win over Oklahoma, losses to Central Michigan and Baylor)

In these scenarios Colorado could supplant Washington outright, Florida would not necessarily knock off Alabama from the playoff race and the Oklahomas need a conference to eliminate itself. There is also the very real possibility that these schools will be evaluated against very highly ranked Big Ten at-large bids.


The “Outliers” Division

Louisville (9-2)

West Virginia (8-2)

Nebraska (9-2)

Western Michigan (11-0)


These programs are on life support and you can make a good argument that they are already eliminated given the plethora of options listed above. In order for these schools to make the playoff the Pac-12 and the ACC must eliminate themselves by having Clemson lose to South Carolina and the ACC title game. Colorado must lose to Utah, Washington must lose to Washington State and Colorado then needs to be Washington for the conference title as a three loss team. An Alabama win over Florida eliminated the Gators outright. At this point Alabama and a Big Ten program will get the nod. The most likely scenario is a second Big Ten program will get the nod and then the Big 12 champion. What happens if the playoff committee is severely down on the Big 12’s strength of schedule? What happens if we get as much Big Ten chaos as possible and Wisconsin losses to Minnesota, Penn State losses to Michigan State and Michigan gives Ohio State a second loss? Alabama, Michigan, the winner of Bedlam and an open spot might be available. The Big 12 is almost certainly not getting two teams in the playoff this year and Nebraska has a very thin case. This is the only scenario where the playoff committee might give an undefeated Western Michigan team a chance or default to Lamar Jackson and Louisville for ratings purposes, choosing to forgive the Cardinals loss to UH.


The “Eliminated” Conference

The “NY6 Contenders” Division

Boise State (10-1)

San Diego State (9-2)

Houston (9-2)

Florida State (8-3)

North Carolina (8-3)

Virginia Tech (8-3)

Washington State (8-3)

Auburn (8-3)


The “AAC Has A Better RPI Than The Big 12” Division

South Florida (9-2)

Temple (8-3)

Navy (8-2)

Tulsa (8-3)

Memphis (7-4)


The “Weirdly a Good Season?” Division

Minnesota (8-3)

Toledo (9-2)

Wyoming (8-3)

USC (8-3)

Pitt (7-4)

Troy (8-2)

Appalachian State (8-3)

UCF (6-5)

Old Dominion (8-3)

Louisiana Tech (8-3)

Western Kentucky (8-3)


The “Good Season That I’m Disappointed In” Division

Iowa (7-4)

Utah (8-3)

Stanford (8-3)

BYU (7-4)

Tennessee (8-3)


The “Winning This Week Will Help Me Feel A LOT Better” Division

Texas A&M (8-3)

Kansas State (6-4)

Baylor (6-4)

Georgia (7-4)

Georgia Tech (7-4)

Indiana (5-6)

LSU (6-4)

Vanderbilt (5-6)

South Carolina (6-5)

Arkansas (7-4)


The “Bad Good Teams” Division

Wake Forest (6-5)

North Carolina State (5-6)

Miami (7-4)

Ohio (7-4)

New Mexico (7-4)

Air Force (8-3)

Kentucky (6-5)

Middle Tennessee (7-4)

Army (6-5)

Central Michigan (6-5)

Eastern Michigan (6-5)

Colorado State (6-5)

Arkansas State (6-4)


The “We Might Be Going Down To FCS Next Year But This Year We Bowlin’!” Division

Idaho (6-4)


The “I Just Want To Go Bowling” Division

SMU (5-6)

Boston College (5-6)

TCU (5-5)

Maryland (5-6)

Northwestern (5-6)

Miami (OH) (5-6)

Akron (5-6)

Hawaii (5-7)

Arizona State (5-6)

Ole Miss (5-6)

Southern Miss (5-6)

North Texas (5-6)

UTSA (5-6)

South Alabama (5-5)


The “How The Hell Could We Still Qualify For A Bowl Game!?” Division

Texas (5-6)


The “Good Bad Teams” Division

Cincinnati (4-7)

Syracuse (4-7)

California (4-7)

Oregon (4-7)

Duke (4-7)


The “Cream Of the Crap” Division

UConn (3-8)

ECU (3-8)

Tulane (3-8)

Notre Dame (4-7)

Northern Illinois (4-7)

UNLV (4-7)

Nevada (4-7)

Mississippi State (4-7)


The “Wheels Have Come Off” Division

Texas Tech (4-7)

UCLA (4-7)

Michigan State (3-8)

Missouri (3-8)

Georgia Southern (4-7)


The “Is The Year Over Yet?” Division

FIU (4-7)

Charlotte (4-7)

Bowling Green (3-8)

Kent State (3-8)

Ball State (4-7)

Utah State (3-8)

San Jose State (3-8)

UL-Lafayette (4-6)

UL-Monroe (4-7)

FAU (3-8)

Marshall (3-8)

Georgia State (3-8)


The “Is This Year Over Yet? Also Would Someone Help Me Put Out This Fire?” Division

Virginia (2-9)

Iowa State (3-8)

Illinois (3-8)

Purdue (3-8)

Oregon State (3-8)


The “Is This Year Over Yet? Also Would Someone Help Me Put Out This Dumpster Fire?” Division

Arizona (2-9)

Rutgers (2-9)

Rice (3-8)

UTEP (3-8)

UMass (2-9)

Buffalo (2-9)

New Mexico State (3-7)

Texas State (2-8)


The “We Might Be A Dumpster Fire But At Least We Broke Texas!” Division

Kansas (2-9)


The “Dumpsteriest Fire Of Them All” Division

Fresno State (1-9)

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.